Asia Pacific Economic Research26 December 2023J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEmerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy ResearchSudhanshu Agarwalsudhanshu.agarwal@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedJin Tik Ngai, CFA(65) 6807 5556jintik.ngai@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchSin Beng Ong(65) 6882-1623sinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchCore CPI moderates in November; trend easing still intact - Singapore�s November core CPI (which excludes private road transport and accommodation) rose 0.2%m/m, sa and was up 3.2%oya, in line with expectations (J.P. Morgan: 3.1%oya and consensus: 3.2%oya). In trend sequential terms, core CPI rose 2.9%3m/3m, saar. Headline inflation rose 3.6%oya and fell 0.6%m/m, sa (Figure 1).In the details, goods inflation has picked up slightly while services inflation continues to display gradual sequential easing (Figure 2). Within core services, the downtrend in food prices has somewhat halted (Figure 3) but given the lack of supply-side price pressures, food prices should continue to stabilize going into 2024. Notwithstanding the El Niño effect and the lagged impact of higher rental prices as well as the 1%pt GST hike on January 1, 2024, the trend easing in core CPI should remain in place (Figure 4).IP unexpectedly contracts; tech recovery still on the cards - Singapore�s November manufacturing production came in much weaker than expected, down 7.8%m/m, sa and up 1.0%oya (J.P. Morgan: 12.7%oya and consensus: 2.2%oya; Figure 5). The weaker-than-expected print was driven by tech (-13.5%m/m, sa) and non-tech/biomedical (-7.0%m/m, sa; Figure 6), with a partial offset from the volatile biomedical component (11.2%m/m, sa). Within tech, the main drag came from semiconductor production (Figure 7). Nonetheless, the underlying trend in tech (November: 72.7% vs. October: 9.6%3m/3m, saar) has improved, resonating with the tech uplift in traditional bellwethers such as Korea and Taiwan. Outside of tech, production levels have been broadly moving sideways and suggest limited spillover into non-tech sectors. Singapore: Consumer price index%oya%m/m, saAug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23CPI4.04.14.73.60.40.50.7-0.6Core13.43.03.33.20.10.10.40.2Source: Department of Statistics (Singapore)1. Excludes accommodation and private transportSee page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures.Singapore: November core CPI moderates IP unexpectedly contracts but underlying trend still healthy 2Sudhanshu Agarwalsudhanshu.agarwal@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedJin Tik Ngai, CFA (65) 6807 5556jintik.ngai@jpmorgan.comSin Beng Ong (65) 6882-1623sinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.comAsia Pacific Economic ResearchSingapore: November core CPI moderates26 December 2023J P M O R G A N-20246812131415161718192021222324%oyaFigure 1: Singapore consumer price inflationHeadline CoreSource: DoS, J.P. Morgan-5051012141618202224%3m/3m, s...
