North America Economic Research28 December 2023J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEconomic ResearchDaniel Silver(1-212) 622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAWe continue to see some downside risk to our 2.0% real GDP growth forecast for 4Q, as the advance trade and inventory data for November disappointed expectations somewhat. But persistently low levels of jobless claims filings (despite increases in today�s report) suggest continued strength in the labor market. Running through some of the economic news from this morning...•Initial claims increased from 206,000 to 218,000 during the week ending December 23. While this disappointed expectations, the level of filings continues to come in at a low level. Weekly figures can be noisy, especially during the holiday season, so we don't want to read too much into any one specific weekly print. Continuing claims also rose in today's report—increasing from 1.861mn to 1.875mn during the week ending December 16—but similarly have stayed at low levels recently.•The nominal goods balance widened from -$89.6bn in October to -$90.3bn in November. Exports and imports both fell in November (-3.6% and -2.1%, in nominal terms, respectively) and we think trade flows also dropped off in volume terms during the month. Overall it looks like net exports are on track to be a modest drag on 4Q GDP.•Nominal wholesale inventories declined 0.2% in November while nominal retail inventories declined 0.1%. The inventory data in hand so far for 4Q look pretty soft. A solid buildup of inventories in 3Q helped lift GDP growth that quarter (adding 1.3%-pts to the headline GDP print), but we think that inventories likely will work in the other direction for 4Q GDP (perhaps subtracting a full percentage point or more).•The pending home sales index was unchanged in November, disappointing expectations for an increase that month. The pending home sales index points to very low levels of homebuying activity as of late and signals that existing home sales likely will continue to look weak in the near term.0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0677277828792970207121722Mns, sawrInitial jobless claimsSource: Department of Labor, J.P. MorganSee page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures.US: Thursday morning data summary2Daniel Silver (1-212) 622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANorth America Economic ResearchUS: Thursday morning data summary28 December 2023J P M O R G A N01234567677277828792970207121722Mns, sawrContinuing jobless claims in regular state programsSource: Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan-140-120-100-80-60-401012141618202224$bn, samrBalance of goods, Census basisSource: Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan-6-4-2024201620172018201920202021202220232024%m/m, saRetail and wholesale inventoriesSource: Census Bureau, J.P. MorganRetailWholesale3Daniel Silver (1-212) 622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Ban...
