ab5 January 2024Global Research and Evidence LabChina Economic CommentChina Economic Calendar 2024; December & Q4 Data Preview Data preview: mixed Dec activities, better Q4 GDP growth on low baseDecember NBS manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4ppt to 49, while Caixin PMI edged up by 0.1ppt to 50.8. NBS non-manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly by 0.2ppt to 50.4. New year tourism activities recovered further. High frequency data showed slightly less bad 30-city property sales growth, stronger growth of steel production, subway passenger turnover and FTL traffic index on low base, but weaker auto sales growth in December. For the upcoming December and Q4 data release, we expect continued large decline in property sales and property investment, better export growth (2%y/y) and IP growth (6.9%y/y), but slower retail sales growth (7%y/y) as low base effect fades. TSF credit growth likely rebounded to 9.7-9.8%y/y, while CPI and PPI likely saw smaller y/y decline. Overall, Q4 GDP q/q growth may have slowed slightly, while a low base likely pushed its y/y growth up to 5.4%y/y. Please see our UBS China Activity Tracker and the Appendix High Frequency Data Monitor for more details.Modest policy support ahead in 2024 CEWC set a supportive policy tone and called for better policy coordination. We see additional property easing measures in 2024, including pushing for urban village renovation and social housing construction and increasing credit support for developers. We expect a decent headline fiscal deficit at 3.5-3.8% of GDP (including possible issuance of new special treasury bonds), larger quota of special LG bonds at RMB 4 trillion, and another RMB 2-3 trillion of special refinancing LG bonds to swap qualified LGFV debt and/or repay corporate arrears. We see 10-20 bps rate cut and 25-50 bps RRR cut in 2024, and a robust credit growth at 9.5%. See more in our CEWC takeaways and 2024 key themes & surprises. UBS China Economic Calendar 2024Happy new year! We have compiled the UBS China Economic Calendar 2024, detailing key policy meetings and data releases. The State Council and PBC have regular meetings, but policy decisions are often made in other meetings, sometimes ad hoc. Any major policy stance change would likely be made during key meetings such as March's National People's Congress (NPC); Politburo economic review & outlook meetings in April, July, October and December; and mid-December's annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC).This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 11. EconomicsChinaNing ZhangEconomist ning.zhang@ubs.com +852-2971 8135Jennifer ZhongEconomistS1460516050002 jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com +86-105-832 8324Grace WangAssociateS1460122080006 grace-zc.wang@ubs.com +86-105-832 8335Tao W...
