M UpdateOil Data Digest | EuropeUS Oil Supply and Demand Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Charlotte FirkinsResearch Associate Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3866 Martijn Rats, CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618 Exhibit 3 : US producers added 4 oil rigs in October but have dropped 113 rigs since the start of January US crude production growth remained at +0.9 mb/d YoY in October, with an output of 13.2 mb/d flat on September levels of production. Demand rose by 0.6 mb/d MoM, led by gasoline and middle distillates. Large cuts to crude imports coincided with refinery turnarounds. US crude production maintained YoY growth of 0.9 mb/d in October and was flat MoM. The slowing in growth rate from summer levels is due to a softening of output growth from the 'shale states'. Crude production in October maintained September's record 13.2 mb/d of production. Small MoM increases in PADDs 1, 3, 4 and 5 were offset by a production decrease in PADD 2 caused by declines in the Bakken basin of North Dakota. The weekly data implies production levels remaining at this level through November and gaining a slight boost near end-December. Exhibit 1:US crude production was flat MoM in October but up 0.87 mb/d YoY (+7.0%). Source: EIA PSM, EIA WPSR Production from the 'shale states' was broadly flat in October. North Dakota, which has been the main driver of recent shale growth, experienced a MoM decline in output (- 31 kb/d) for the first time since March. The main regions supporting growth this month were Texas and New Mexico, which combined added 35 kb/d MoM. Despite the increases in production of 0.68 mb/d YoY, the rate of annual growth slowed for the second consecutive month in October. Exhibit 2:Production from 'shale states' rose by 10 kb/d MoM and was 0.68 mb/d higher YoY (+7.2%).Source: EIA PSM Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. January 5, 2024 07:15 AM GMTM Update2Supply Continued… Baker Hughes data saw oil rig counts start to tick up in October, marking the first consecutive week-on-week rise since December 2022. The gains were concentrate...
