Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11. The Flow Show Record Flows…Cash, USTs, TIPS & Value The Flow Show will return on January 4th, 2024. Happy New Year! Scores on the Doors: crypto 127.9%, stocks 19.7%, HY bonds 10.4%, gold 8.5%, IG bonds 7.3%, cash 4.7%, gov bonds 1.0%, US dollar -0.6%, commd -6.2%, oil -13.4% YTD. Flows in 2023: record $1.3tn inflow to cash (Chart 4), record $177bn to USTs (Chart 5), $162bn to IG bonds, $152bn to global stocks (Chart 6), $125bn to US large cap, $44bn to tech vs. record $33bn redemptions from TIPS, $37bn from EM debt & record $73bn redemptions from US value funds. Weekly Flows: outflows across the board from gold ($0.3bn), bonds ($2.1bn), stocks ($21.3bn), and cash ($26.1bn). Flows to Know: 3rd week of Treasury outflows ($9.2bn), longest streak since Feb’21; largest equity outflow since Dec’22; largest tech outflow in 15 weeks ($0.7bn). BofA Private Clients: $3.3tn AUM…60.1% stocks, 21.4% bonds, 11.8% cash; largest weekly inflow to equities since Dec’21 (in contrast to EPFR data)…GWIM equity allocation back above 60%; private client buying of HY ETFs vs. selling of low-vol, TIPS, & EM debt ETFs past 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 5.0 from 4.7, highest since Dec'21, largest 4-week jump (1.7 to 5.0) since Apr'16, driven by big HY inflows, credit technicals & strong equity market breadth (78% equity indices now trading above 50dma & 200dma…big reversal from Oct 31st when 76% trading below 50/200dma). Chart 2: The Main Events in Q1 Upcoming Q1’24 events to watch Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Q1'24 E ventsJ a n 1s tB R IC S expa nsionF eb 1s tUS IS MMa r 1s tUS IS MJ a n 3rdUS IS MF eb 2ndUS pa yrollsMa r 5thS uper Tuesda y prima riesJ a n 5thUS pa yrollsF eb 3rdS outh C a rolina prima ryMa r 7thE C BJ a n 11thUS C P IF eb 13th US C P IMa r 8thUS pa yrollsJ a n 13thTa iwa n electionF eb 27th Michiga n prima ryMa r 12...
