The World in 2024The Great Fragmentation© 2024 ISPIVia Clerici 5 – 20121 Milan – Italywww.ispionline.itThe World in 2024: The Great FragmentationFirst edition: December 2023Cover image by Francesco FadaniThe opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect ISPI’s position.ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALPOLITICAL STUDIESThe World in 2024The Great FragmentationGeopoliticsWars That Break Us Apart• • RuRussia-Ukrainessia-Ukraine Andrei Kolesnikov (CEIP and ISPI) 7• Israel-Gaza Karim Mezran (Atlantic Council and ISPI) 10Global South: The “Rest” vs the West?Gustavo De Carvalho (SAIIA) 13No World for Superowers Susan A. Thornton (Yale University) 16 Trust Failing, Arm Racing Nan Tian (SIPRI) 19Shattered West• USA2024: If Trump Is Back Mario Del Pero (Sciences Po and ISPI) 22 • Europe Is Back (To Square One) Antonio Villafranca (ISPI) 25 GeoeconomicsGolbal World: Choking Engines Alicia García Herrero (Bruegel and ISPI) 30Broken Value Chains Emily Benson (CSIS) 32ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALPOLITICAL STUDIESThe World in 2024 The Great Fragmentation | 4 | 4Europe: The Spectre of De-industrialization Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki (Jacques Delors Institute) 35Dealing with the Green Backlash Dave Jones (Ember) 38Divide et AImpera: Fake News Change GearsRohinton P. Medhora (CIGI and McGill University) 41To Watch 2024• Country to watch• Egypt, Marina Ottaway (Woodrow Wilson Center) 45• Election to watch• India, Pratap Bhanu Mehta (Princeton University) 50• Leader to watch• Benjamin Netanyahu, Anshel Pfeffer (Ha’aretz and The Economist) 53• Mahmoud Abbas, Tahani Mustafa (ICG) 56• Crisis to watch• Armenia-Azerbaijan, Vicken Cheterian (Geneva University) 59• Sudan and Horn of Africa, Alex de Waal (World Peace Foundation) 62The World in 2024the Great FragmentationITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALPOLITICAL STUDIESThe World in 2024The Great Fragmentation | 6GEOPOLITICSThe World in 2024The Great FragmentationITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALPOLITICAL STUDIES | 7Andrei Kolesnikov, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a Senior Research Associate Fellow at ISPI.WARS THAT BREAK US APARTRussia -UkraineAndrei KolesnikovCarnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) and ISPIThe World in 2024 The Great FragmentationIn March 2024, Vladimir Putin will refresh his own legitimacy and reaffirm that of his “special operation” through a quasi-electoral procedure called the “presidential election in Russia”. A no-alternative, approving and often coercive acclamation, which has more to do with the mediaeval Novgorodian veche (people’s meeting) than with modern competitive elections, this will allow Putin to believe that the people have given him a mandate to continue his “special operation” and repression within the country.SOCIAL CONTRACTFor the average Russian, there is only one pragmatic question – whether, after an emotional mobilisation i...
