M IdeaMandarin Sound Bites | Asia Pacific科技脉动：亚洲科技�好事成双 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+刘端研究助理 Duan.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7357 金榮燦股票分析师 Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1005 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2024 Institutional Investor All-Asia Research Team Survey. Request your ballot here. 韩国科技行业Asia Pacific行业观点Attractive 我们对2024年的亚洲科技股票投资布局采取既“防”又“攻”的策略�最近的科技股震荡提供了很好的买入时机，特别是那些基本面有市场分歧的股票�我们在此推荐八类主题� Play Audio This audio/video report is made available for convenience only and is based on the referenced research report(s) Tech Bytes: Good Things Come in Pairs (15 Jan 2024). In the event of any discrepancy between the content in this report and the referenced research report(s), the content in the referenced research report(s) will prevail.此音频/视频报告仅供参考之便，并且是基于所引用的研究报告 Tech Bytes: Good Things Come in Pairs (15 Jan 2024)�如果本报告的内容与所引用的研究报告有任何不一致之处，以引用的研究报告中的内容为准�Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. January 16, 2024 12:49 AM GMTM Idea2Valuation Methodology and Risks 联电 (2303.TW) Base-case, residual income model. Key assumptions: 9.2% cost of equity, 5.0% medium-term growth and 3.0% terminal growth. Risks to Upside n Stronger-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth.n Looser pricing competition, increasing margins and utilization rates.n Favorable customer mix changes. Risks to Downside n Softer-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth.n Increasing pricing competition, reducing margins and utilization rates.n Unfavorable customer mix changes. 台积电 (2330.TW) Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: a cost of equity of 9.2% (beta of 1.2, risk-free rate of 2.0% and risk premium of 6.0%), an intermediate growth rate of 7.0%, a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, and a payout ratio of 80%. Risks to Upside n TSMC charges large customers more to keep its gross margin above 53% in 2024.n Reduced capex intensity of N2 bodes well for free cash flow and long-term gross margin recovery.n Variety of Apple-designed chips brings additional growth.n Outsourcing from...
