Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 20242Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2024 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2024This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in November-December 2023.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary __________________________________________________________ 51. Global conditions remain subdued __________________________________________ 7Growth momentum is slowing across regions __________________________________ 7Tightening cycle may be nearing the end _____________________________________ 102. Geopolitical rifts compound uncertainty ____________________________________ 12Fragmentation clouds the outlook ___________________________________________ 12Governments continue to turn inward ________________________________________ 153. Artificial intelligence takes the spotlight ____________________________________ 18 AI may expand the productivity frontier _______________________________________ 18Navigating the societal impact ______________________________________________ 20References _________________________________________________________________ 23Contributors ________________________________________________________________ 28Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 29Cover: Unsplash5Chief Economists OutlookThe January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid protracted weakness in global economic conditions and widening regional divergence. Uncertainty that dominated the outlook over the last year continues to cloud near-term economic developments: 56% of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year, but another 43% foresee unchanged or stronger conditions. While there are positive developments, such as easing inflationar...
