Outlook 2024A Health Care Metamorphosis The Latest Scrip 100 Pharma RankingsM&A, Financing And R&D Data AnalysesC-Suite Insights On Future Trends December 2023 | In Vivo | 5 OUTLOOK4 | In Vivo | December 2023 OUTLOOKAn unsteady geopolitical situation in eastern Europe, worldwide inflation and the politicization of drug pricing in the US all made their mark on 2023. Making predictions about the biopharma world is always a tricky endeavor, but looking ahead into 2024 reveals an uptick in deal-making and perhaps the return of larger scale M&A, as big pharma feels the pressure to fill pipeline gaps at a faster rate. The unprecedented demand for new treatments in obesity has meant a couple of companies have fuller pockets and, in turn, more cash to put to work. The industry is moving closer to a large and extended patent cliff, a period of time from 2025 to the end of the decade when many of pharma’s biggest revenue generating products are facing loss of exclusivity (see Exhibit 1).While the maturation of understanding around diseases such as obesity and long-awaited novel approvals in Alzheimer’s will start to fill the gap, there is not sufficient pipeline growth to make up the difference. According to Evaluate Pharma, there is $14.1bn in US sales at risk in 2024.As well as a look at deal-making in the year ahead, In Vivo has highlighted a number of key development areas to watch in 2024 alongside anticipated clinical trial readouts. Deal-Making In 2024At November’s BIO-Europe Fall conference, held in Munich, Ipsen’s EVP, chief business officer, Philippe Lopes Fernandes, highlighted the challenging market in 2023. He told delegates during a panel discussion on navigating biopharma deal-making, “It has been a challenging market, especially for public companies. Thank god for the biotech CEOs they are not all public, and right now it is much better to be a private biotech than a public one. The market is crazy, but the fundamentals are right.”Bradley Hardiman, senior director, Astellas Venture Management, described the situation for companies looking for deals and raising funds as “tightly controlled at the moment.” “We hear about dry powder, venture capital funds, but there is still fear in the market and we need to flip that confidence level,” Hardiman said. “Dry powder on its own is pointless, but let’s make some fireworks and do some deals. Pharma is very active but there is pressure on our share price: we are not immune to what is going on in the market.”SVP, head of global business development & alliance management at Merck KGaA, Matthias Müllenbeck, noted that M&A deals had focused on “post-proof of concept” assets in 2023. But he expects more earlier stage deals in 2024. “The number of targets with totally de-risked assets is limited,” he said. “You will need to move into more earlier space,...
