2024年日本股票市场投资策略-20240201-海通国际-49页.pdfVIP专享VIP免费优质

2024年日本股票市场投资策略Investment Strategy of Japan Stock Market 季屏子 JI Pingzi, pz.ji@htisec.com2024年1月本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translationof the disclaimer)Equity – Asia ResearchFor full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com 继续看好2024年日本市场，对上半年更乐观o走出通缩预期加强：工资连续上涨带来的正循环的形成o稳定而可控的货币政策正常化o企业治理的改善：资本效率和股东回报o资金面：关注海外长线资金和日本国内个人投资者o利润率改善驱动盈利增长：预期FY2023盈利同比增长13-15%o 看好的行业： 可选消费，IT服务，银行，医药，硬件和电子o风险：1）海外经济增长和需求，2）日元，3）日本货币政策节奏22024年日本市场基本观点For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com市场概况(投资者结构、指数、行业)盈利和估值日本的宏观经济和政策日本股票投资策略3For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com市场概况和投资者结构主要指数比较4Sources: Haitong, Bloomberg For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com市场概况和投资者结构日本股市相关主要指标（2023年底）5Monthly returnYTD return 1Y returnPENIKKEI 22533464.2-0.1%28.2%28.2%24.61TOPIX INDEX (TOKYO)2366.39-0.4%25.1%24.9%15.65S&P 500 INDEX4769.834.4%24.2%23.9%22.09NASDAQ COMPOSITE15011.355.5%43.4%43.3%37.51PHILA SEMICONDUCTOR INDX 4175.4712.1%64.9%64.7%32.25MSCI World Index3169.184.8%21.8%21.3%19.13Generic 1st 'CO' Future77.04-7.0%-10.3%-6.3%US Generic Govt 10 Yr3.88-10.3%0.1%1.7%japan 10 y govt bond yield0.61-8.6%45.5%33.2%Japanese Yen Spot141.04-4.8%7.6%6.0%Sources: Haitong, Bloomberg For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com市场概况和投资者结构Sources: JPX, as end of 2022 6投资者结构（％）For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com市场概况和投资者结构Total Trading Value of Stocks in Tokyo & Nagoya Markets by Investor Type (2022)7交易结构Value (JPY tn) Ratio (%)Total1,727.8100.0Proprietary216.612.5Brokerage1,511.287.5Institutions106.07.0Individuals355.323.5Foreigners1,041.268.9Securities Cos.8.70.6Sources: JPX, as end of 2022 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies ...