Worldpanel Division, Kantar MENAJanuary 2024FMCG Macro Update Q3, 2023Charting UAE FMCG Landscape with Shopper Trends and Retailer PerformanceBy Q3, UAE’s annual growth projection for 2023 enjoyed an upgrade, driven by resilient non-oil sector, including FMCG, real estate, tourism and services sectors, despite drags from oil GDP cut and higher interest rates*Source: (1) Oxford Economics Country Economic Forecast report for September 2023. (2) https://tradingeconomics.com *A PMI value above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a value below 50 indicates contraction. Non-oil sector offers resilience and expansionUAE's non-oil GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% in ‘23 and 3.8% in ‘24, Backed by robust construction, manufacturing, and financial services sectors in Abu Dhabi and tourism and trade in Dubai.Policy and investment are nurturing economic evolution100% foreign ownership rule, visa reforms, the 'We the UAE 2031' vision, Dubai Economic Agenda 'D33', and economic accords with several countries, setting a pathway for sustainable growthReal estate and capital markets enjoying a positive reboundDubai's property prices and residential rents soaring. The capital market deepening, despite global uncertainties, with a steady flow of IPOs, supporting the financial sector's stability and growth.Sep PMI*56.7UAE announced a fiscal surplus for last year, with impressive revenue growth of 31.8%.Key challenges moving forwardHigher interest rates for investments. Lower oil contribution to GDPMacro-economic Context2100991011071089892103101959610010198100971029593101102999710099961089910695941011031019999100104979310410297100105104102106101108103102108109108107111109106116107114104103109108Avg 2021Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23VolumesSpendsBasis the 86 FMCG categories we currently track in the UAE (without Bottled Water), Worldpanel Division, KantarRamadan and the back-to-school period showed improved performance compared to the previous year, with consumer sentiment being more optimisticUAE FMCG Monthly KPIs | Indexed to the average of FY 2021Summer VacationsVaccination starts but cases continueRamadan 2021Back to schoolSummer VacationsRamadan 2022Back to schoolRamadan 2023Summer VacationsBack to schoolMay ‘23 volume bump contributed by: Popped Popcorn Toilet Cleaning Blocks Hanger Iced tea Croissant/puffs/sandwiches Fabric stain remover & CBFrom South Asians and in Abu Dhabi / Al Ain* In order to see the trends / crests and throughs in terms of volumes for overall FMCG we have removed the contribution from Bottled Water volumes which does not fluctuate much over timeRussia Ukraine War StartsKey FMCG Trends3Despite a lower visit frequency and a slight decrease in spend per trip, overall spending surpasses the 2021 average, indicating an...
