January 2024 OIES Paper: SP 22 Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2024 OIES i The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2024 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-227-0 ii Contents .................................................................................................................................................. ii Figures .................................................................................................................................................... ii 1. Introduction – Energy transition comes of age ................................................................................ 1 2. Time for Action after COP28 ............................................................................................................ 3 3. Energy transition – When climate policy becomes protectionism ................................................... 5 4. Geopolitics will test energy market resilience in 2024 ..................................................................... 7 5. China in 2024: Overcapacity looms large ........................................................................................ 9 6. European Gas Market Flexibility Waning in 2024 .......................................................................... 11 7. LNG - How much more in 2024 and where will it go? ................................................................... 14 8. Geopolitics and oil demand uncertainty complicate the OPEC+ balancing act in 2024 ................ 16 9. Offshore wind power: growth, challenges, and navigating the future ............................................ 18 10. 2024: A make-or-break year for carbon markets and solutions .................................................... 20 11. Hydrogen – China leading Europe and US on green projects ...................................................... 22 Figures Figure 1: Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries ......................................... 4 Figure 2: Battery supply chain concentration in China – 2023 ............................................................... 6 Figure 3: EU-27 Gas Storage (Bcm) ..................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4: Difference between key agencies’ global oil demand growth forecasts ................................ 17 Figure 5: OPEC+ cuts vs non-OPEC output .......................................................
