宏观经济 | 2024 年 1 月 31 日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要 美国经济韧性仍在，预计联储近期维持利率不变：美国增长和就业数据持续坚挺，通胀降温虽持续但也面临阻力，中东局势亦带来风险。我们认为市场对联储年内大幅降息的乐观预期面临回调风险。我们维持联储在 3 季度和 4 季度各降息 25 个基点的预测。考虑到经济超预期韧性，美财政赤字仍持续扩大，我们维持 2 年和 10 年美国债利率 1 季度的交易区间仍分别在 4.2-4.6%和 3.8%-4.2%的预测。同时我们预计 2 年和 10 年美国债利率年底将分别下滑至 4.0%和 4.1%。 国内政策逐步发力，预计今年国内持续弱复苏：2023 经济增速达标，年末数据仍显示产出强，消费弱的特点。财政支持 4 季度以来上升。制造业投资保持强劲，对冲地产的持续疲软，但就业和收入复苏仍较弱。预计财政保持支持取态，2024 有效赤字超过 2023 年。货币政策维持流动性宽松。地产政策保持支持，行业下行收窄。我们预计 2024 年中国经济增速将达到 5%左右。 预计美元短期震荡，中期回落，利好人民币兑美元汇率小幅回升：1 月美国经济坚挺，推动美元指数反弹。短期如果美国经济增长持续超预期，美元可能持续震荡中小幅上行。但随着降息周期的开启，预计美元年底前震荡下行，加上购买境内债券的海外资本回流，支持人民币汇率小幅走高。预计中资高收益美元债利差持续收窄，但受美元高利率和市场风险偏好变化，预计净融资今年仍继续萎缩。 下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据，地产和宏观政策。 Main points: Expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in 1H amid continued US economic resilience. US growth and jobs data remains solid. Disinflation continued amid risks posed by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Optimistic market pricing of rate cuts is prone to a pull-back, in our view. We continue to expect the Fed to cut the Fund rate by 25bp twice, in 3Q and 4Q, respectively. Taking in account better-than-expected economic resilience and a widening trend in the US fiscal deficit, we maintain our view that 2- and 10-year bond yields will trade in the 4.2-4.6% and 3.8-4.2% range, respectively, in 1Q 2024F. Furthermore, we expect 2- and 10-year bond yields to fall to 4.0% and 4.1% by the year-end, respectively. Modest recovery in China will continue as policy easing gains traction. Growth in 2023 met the official target, although Dec data continued to show the imbalances of stronger production and softer consumption. Fiscal support has strengthened since 4Q. Manufacturing investment growth was solid, offsetting the drag from a weak property sector. However, employment and income growth remains soft. We expect supportive fiscal spending with a larger effective deficit this year than in 2023. Monetary policy is focused on maintaining sufficient liquidity. We expect the drag from the property sector to relent as policy easing continues. We keep our 2024 growth target of around 5%. USD to fluctuate in the near term before falling in the medium term, while the RMB is expected to strengthen modestly this year. US economic outperformance drove a USD rebound in Jan, after it had weakened in 4Q. Should US gro...
