M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global January 19Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMartin W Tobias, CFAStrategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCEli P CarterStrategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Marie-Anais C FrancoisStrategist Marie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1877 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Koichi SugisakiStrategist Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Gek Teng KhooStrategist Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303 Long-end gilts gain after UK retail sales collapse; USTs twist flatten, curve remains in flux; Semis earnings support TWD, TWSE; AI beneficiaries drive S&P 500 to record high; CLP outperforms; Japan nationwide CPI eases on less energy contribution; DXY at 103.24 (-0.3%); US 10y at 4.123% (-1.9bp).• Long-end gilts gain after UK retail sales collapse in December and signal the UK economy was likely in a technical recession in 2H23; 30y gilts rally 2.8bp to 4.56%.• USTs twist flatten as front-end losses ensue after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee suggests a reversal in the progress on inflation could merit rate hikes.• TWD (+0.6%) strengthens against USD, after strong semiconductor earnings buoy Taiwan equities.• This positive sentiment carries over into the US as stocks that benefit from the adoption of artificial intelligence drive the S&P 500 (+1.23%) to a new record high.• CLP (+0.8%) outperforms peers amid media reports the government will sell 3USDbn in 1Q24.• Nationwide December CPI for Japan-style core CPI (ex-fresh food) eases to 2.3% y/y (P: 2.5%), mainly a reflection of a decline in the contribution from energy-related items.Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Global Economics and Macro Strategy: Earlier Start, Slower Taper; Government Bond Auction Pipeline: The Month Ahead; EM Fixed Income Flows Update: Where Supply Meets Demand; Podcast | The Global Macro Guide: January 19). The main G10 central bank events in the week ahead are Monetary Policy Meetings for the BoJ (Jan 23), BoC (Jan 24), Norges Bank (Jan 25), and ECB (Jan 25). In addition, Minutes from the December BoJ (Jan 25) meeting will be released. Selected Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S...
