M UpdateOil Data Digest | EuropeKey Agency Revisions - January 2024We summarise January forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. New forecasts for 2025 have been released by the EIA and OPEC. Some upwards revisions to absolute level of both demand and non-OPEC supply leave overall forecasts for 2024 still calling for a balanced market. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Charlotte FirkinsResearch Associate Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3866 Martijn Rats, CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618 Exhibit 1 : OPEC estimates for 2024 have remained a bit of an outlier… Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC , Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Note: the IEA has not currently released 2025 estimates. Exhibit 2 : …driven by a higher demand growth estimate for 2024 Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: the IEA has not currently released 2025 estimates. This report summarises estimates from the IEA, OPEC and the EIA, and compares them with our latest estimates from The Oil Manual: 2024 Outlook: Balancing Act (3 Jan 2024). January saw upwards revisions for global 2024 demand growth by the IEA (+190 kb/d) and EIA (+50 kb/d). This takes them to respective global demand growth estimates of 1.24 mb/d and 1.39 mb/d for 2024. Meanwhile OPEC kept their estimate flat at a still elevated estimate of 2.25 mb/d. The IEA's upward revision for 2024 was based on tailwinds from improvement in consensus economic outlook and the softer oil prices seen since 4Q23. Initial estimates for 2025 demand were published by the EIA and OPEC. OPEC forecasts 1.8 mb/d of global oil demand growth in 2024, while the EIA has a more conservative estimate of 1.2 mb/d. In both cases, growth in non-OECD countries is the driving force of growth. The main discrepancies between the two estimates concern demand growth in China and the Middle East. OPEC sees 160 kb/d more growth in China and 130 kb/d more in the Middle East than the EIA does for 2025. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Key TakeawaysIEA - Significant upwards revisions to both global demand and non-OPEC supply growth in 20...
