11wtwco.comNatural Catastrophe Review: Expert insights, lessons learned and outlookJuly – December 2023ForewordRecent eventsOutlookContacts and information1/ Foreword 4 2/ Recent events 82.1 Analyzing the aftermath of 2023's severe weather in the U.S. 92.2 Gargantuan hail in northern Italy: Natural climate variability or climate change? 132.3 From Hawai‘i to Hellas: Nature sparks, humans fan wildfires in 2023 172.4 The föhn-omenal wind cranking up the heat 212.5 Panama drought: An ebbing tide lifts all boats’ transit fees 252.6 A turning point in understanding North Atlantic hurricane activity in a changing climate 282.7 Rapid intensification in the Pacific: A tale of two tropical cyclones 312.8 Summer European windstorms: The potential for €1 billion Euro losses? 362.9 Storm Daniel: A cautionary tale on the need to maintain infrastructure before it’s too late 412.10 Urban flooding in a changing world: New York City and Hong Kong 462.11 From rainfall to resilience: Slovenia's 2023 record-breaking floods 502.12 Putting the devastating 2023 Mw 6.8 Morocco earthquake in context 542.13 A world that springs climate surprises: Antarctic sea ice trends 58 3/ Outlook 623.1 The tropical Pacific is ready to rumble 633.2 A closer look at Europe’s windstorm outlook for winter 2023/2024 673.3 Campi Flegrei: Examining the science beyond the headlines 724/ Contacts and information 78TABLE OF CONTENTS22ForewordRecent eventsOutlookContacts and information33ForewordForewordRecent eventsOutlookContacts and information44Welcome to the latest edition of WTW's Natural Catastrophe Review, a biannual publication that brings insights from our experts, including WTW’s Research Network, to examine recent natural disasters, lessons learned and emerging trends. Offering a smarter way to risk, this report goes beyond the numbers to provide new perspectives to help with natural catastrophe risk management and resilience across multiple sectors. This edition delves into the physical, vulnerability and socioeconomic factors that contributed to the largest natural disasters in the second half of 2023 (Figure 1) and examines the overarching themes of the year. It also provides an outlook for early 2024, focusing on the ongoing El Niño in the Pacific and winter windstorm forecasts for the European North Atlantic region. As 2023 drew to a close, the economic and societal impacts of "secondary" perils became a focal point for risk managers following a year dominated by severe convective storms (SCSs), wildfires, droughts and floods. In the U.S., insurers saw the costliest SCS year on record, with total claims exceeding $50 billion. Meanwhile, in the second half of 2023, Hawai‘i witnessed its deadliest wildfire in recent history, claiming over 100 lives. In Europe, northern Italy faced an unprecedented hailstorm, and certain countries — including Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece —...
