M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global January 30Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMartin W Tobias, CFAStrategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCEli P CarterStrategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 Lenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Marie-Anais C FrancoisStrategist Marie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1877 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Koichi SugisakiStrategist Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Min DaiStrategist Min.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7983 USTs twist flatten, early month-end activity supports long-end; European curves bear-flatten; Brent settles up after Saudi directive; USD/MYR falls despite Malaysia political uncertainty; ECB's Vujcic prefers 25bp cuts; CLP weakens before BCCh; DXY at 103.42 (-0.2%); US 10y at 4.032% (-4.2bp).• USTs twist flatten after unexpected rise in Job Openings inches the vacancies per unemployed worker ratio to 1.44 (P: 1.43). Long-end strength accelerates into NY close, month-end dynamics in focus.• European curves bear-flatten after both 4Q23 Euro Area GDP and preliminary January Spanish CPI are above consensus expectations; 10y BTP-Bund spread widens ~3bp.• Brent crude oil futures settle 0.6% higher after the Saudi government gives a state-owned oil company a directive to no longer raise production capacity.• USD/MYR finishes down slightly, lower UST yields overnight outweigh Malaysia political uncertainty.• ECB Governing Council Member Vujcic says, “twenty-five basis-point moves are preferable to larger moves that usually happen when you feel you’re a bit behind the curve.”• CLP (-0.1%) depreciation continues, ahead of the BCCh meeting where our economists expect the central bank to cut the policy rate by 100bp, to 7.25% (C: 7.25%).Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Riksbank Preview: Non-Forecast, First Edition; LatAm HY Sovereign Credit Strategy: Challenges and Catalysts; Argentina: Quantifying the Fiscal Setback; Global Macro Strategy: Positions and Flows Report).Developed MarketsUnited States: Not to be overlooked ahead of Wednesday’s first-tier risk events and amidst several iterations of corporate layoff announcements, month-end dynamics eventually left a clear imprint on Treasury market price action on Tuesday.Long-end strength, which followed Treasury’s lower-than-expected privately held net marketable estimates announced on Monday, carried over into the Tuesday session as the UST curve bull-flattened for most of the overnight session. Yet, the Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that t...
