M UpdateSingapore Equity Strategy | Asia PacificFund Flows and Fundamentals: January 2024Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+Wilson W Ng, CFAEquity Analyst Wilson.W.Ng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6345 Derek ChangEquity Analyst Derek.Chang@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6512 Aitong LiResearch Associate Aitong.Li@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6295 Exhibit 1 : MSCI Singapore Index: Key metrics and performanceMSCI Singapore IndexValueP/E (NTM, X)DY (NTM, %)P/B (NTM, X)31-Jan-241,28711.4x5.11.2xTarget (Dec'24)1,45011.9x4.91.3xPotential upside:13%Total Return:18%Index performanceYTD1M3M12MAbsolute-3%-3%2%-9%Rel. to MSCI APxJ2%2%-5%-1% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research estimates Past editions: Oct | Nov | Dec | Podcasts : Collection Singapore Focus List: DBS Group Holdings (DBSM.SI) | Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC.SI) | Singapore Telecom (STEL.SI) | Sembcorp Industries (SCIL.SI) | Genting Singapore (GENS .SI) Themes for 2024 : Webcast Replays: click here Presentation Slides: Equity Strategy | Banks | Consumer | Internet Property | REITs | Telco | Utilties & Infrastructure Singapore equities fell 3% in January amid a China equities selldown and rising US bond yields. Investors seem divided over the path of US interest rates this year, leading to mixed views over Singapore's banking vs. real estate sectors.Spotlight on Economic Outlook: Singapore GDP growth is poised to accelerate from ~1% in 2023, to 1-3% in 2024, based on Singapore government projections. This is in contrast to global growth that is likely to decelerate this year. Our Asia economist Derrick Kam shares his latest views on the outlook for Singapore's economy, and what to expect following the recent quarterly MAS monetary policy meeting, and heading into the upcoming budget announcement on Feb 16 in our latest podcast (click here to listen).HK Marketing Feedback (Property). Investors we met in HK last week expressed divided views over where US interest rates will land this year, and whether to long banks over REITs in Singapore, or the reverse. They seemed more keen on retail mall REITs over industrial REITs, which were seen to be more well-owned. Several investors we met pointed out that lower mortgage rates this year could lift residential developers, but recognize the risks of potential index rebalancing changes. Investors also expressed more caution over China's growth outlook compared to meetings we had four months ago, and thus had reservations over asset manager CapitaLand Investments' (CAPN.SI, OW) ability to recycle capital in China (despite progress in Jan 2024) and achieve its S$100bn AUM target this year.HK Marketing Feedback (Telcos). Potential for mobile consolidation in Singapore was a key topic of interest highlighted during Telco analyst Da Wei Lee's meetings with HK-based investors earlier in January. Investors he met mostly saw downside risk to broadband pricing in Singapore, with...
