M UpdateUS Banks and Consumer Finance | North AmericaDollars and Cents Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCBetsy L. Graseck, CFAEquity Analyst Betsy.Graseck@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8473 Manan GosaliaEquity Analyst Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4092 Jeffrey Adelson, CFAEquity Analyst Jeff.Adelson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1761 Ryan Kenny, CFAEquity Analyst Ryan.Kenny@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1664 Brian Wilczynski, CFAResearch Associate Brian.Wilczynski@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1084 Connell J SchmitzResearch Associate Connell.Schmitz@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6252 Ayokunle Fagbemi, CFAResearch Associate Ayo.Fagbemi@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2112 Large Cap BanksNorth AmericaIndustry ViewAttractiveMidcap BanksNorth AmericaIndustry ViewIn-LineConsumer FinanceNorth AmericaIndustry ViewIn-LineIn this weekly note, we track performance, EPS revision, valuation, sentiment, and positioning data across US Banks and Consumer Finance stocks. We also track the latest trends on deposits, loans and cash from the Fed H.8 release.Inside you will find:• Performance and consensus EPS revisions over the past 5 days, 30 days, 90 days, and YTD.• Dividend and buyback yields/payout ratios by company. • Sell-side sentiment vs. short-interest trends.• Valuation metrics (P/E and P/TBVPS) versus historical benchmarks. • Industry-wide bank loan and deposit trends from the Fed H.8 release.Exhibit 1:Industry-Wide Deposit Balance TrendsDeposits (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)Large BanksSmall BanksAll Banks3/29/202367 (184) (248) 4/26/2023(227) (42) (259) 5/31/2023144 53 200 6/28/2023(74) 8 (44) 7/26/2023(95) 23 (60) 8/30/202338 52 74 9/27/20237 (1) 2 10/25/2023(91) 7 (90) 11/29/2023141 36 198 12/6/202352 14 64 12/13/202363 10 76 12/20/202353 12 61 12/27/202330 9 21 1/3/2024(42) (1) (32) 1/10/2024(87) (21) (78) 1/17/20245 (7) 9 1/24/2024(141) (19) (169) 1/31/2024104 28 147 2/7/2024(57) (8) (58) Change ($ in billions)Month / MonthWeek / WeekSource: Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Research. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.February 18, 2024 06:09 PM GMTM Update2Performance and EPS RevisionsExhibit 2:5 Day Stock Performance8%5%5%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-2%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%WFCCFRBFHMTBHBANEWBCUSBCADEBACSLMSOFIRFJPMSYFSNVS&P 500 FinsCCOFZIONFCNCAKEYDFSWBSFHNVLYFITBCBSHPNCTFCNAVINTRSPBOZKCFGS&P 500GSAXPNYCBBKALLYSTTWALCMA5-Day Stock PerformanceNote: Data as of 2/16/2024. FCNCA, FHN, and WAL are not covered by Morgan Stanley Research. Data does n...
