M Idea UBER's Momentum Continues in 4Q: UBER's 4Q results (rides bookings in-line with us and 1% above Street...Delivery bookings 1%/2% above us/Street) speak to the momentum in the business and platform. We believe UBER is driving adoption and taking share in the US in both Mobility and Delivery… and key platform metrics on its core business growth, emerging business growth, user frequency and new revenue opportunities are all scaling. We detail each of these as well as our model/PT revisions below (which bake in more near-term investment). However, today we want to focus on what matters next and 5 key points/debates that we think could drive the stock at/through Uber's investor update next week: 1) Expect Uber to Remain a Multi-Year Execution and Revision Story. With UBER's share price up ~180% since the beginning of '23 (Nasdaq up ~50%), driven by consistent execution and upward revisions (off of arguably pragmatic expectations laid out at '22 Analyst Day), we think investors should be mindful that forward targets laid out next week could likely be conservative. For perspective, our current '24 $6.3bn of EBITDA is ~25% above UBER's '22 analyst day $5bn target. As such, we What’s Changed Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N)FromToPrice Target$62.00$82.00Uber Technologies Inc | North America5 Keys To Next Week's Analyst Update4Q showed UBER's platform momentum as we raise PT to $82 (OW, 16% upside). We discuss 5 keys to the 2/14 Analyst Day: 1) Expect a conservative guide and buy on dips, 2) Improved Mobility disclosure, 3) Mobility incrementals 4) Growth/Unit Economics of Restaurant/Grocery 5) Capital Returns. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCBrian Nowak, CFAEquity Analyst Brian.Nowak@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3365 Matt BombasseiResearch Associate Matt.Bombassei@morganstanley.com Julian HerreraResearch Associate Julian.Herrera@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1784 Matthew CostEquity Analyst Matthew.Cost@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-7252 Kieran Kenny, CFAResearch Associate Kieran.Kenny@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5137 Chloe A CurrieResearch Associate Chloe.Currie@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2158 Dave NwokonkoResearch Associate Dave.Nwokonko@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4774 Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N, UBER UN)Internet | United States of AmericaStock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewAttractivePrice target$82.00Shr price, close (Feb 7, 2024)$70.65Mkt cap, curr (mm)$144,00152-Week Range$71.89-29.23Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.Key Takeaways4Q r...
