M UpdateOil Data Digest | EuropeUS Oil Supply and Demand Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Charlotte FirkinsResearch Associate Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3866 Martijn Rats, CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618 Exhibit 3 : The rig count has stayed flat over the course of November. 113 rigs have been dropped since the start of January US crude production reached a new high of 13.3 mb/d in November, with annual growth remaining at +0.9 mb/d YoY. Demand was broadly flat MoM, with weakness in clean products demand. Crude imports were boosted as refinery maintenance season ended and run rates picked up significantly. US crude production reached a new high of 13.3 mb/d, enabled by a boost in production from the traditional growth engine of shale - the Permian basin. Crude production in November inched up to a new production record of 13.3 mb/d. The largest MoM increases were seen in PAD Districts 2, 3 and 4, led by the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. The weekly data implies production levels remaining at this level through December then falling off into January as a result of the extreme cold period that hit the US and shut in large areas of crude production, particularly in North Dakota. Exhibit 1:US crude production was up 90 kb/d MoM in November but up 0.93 mb/d YoY (+7.5%). Source: EIA PSM, EIA WPSR Production from the 'shale states' increased in November. The main regions supporting growth this month were Texas and New Mexico again, which combined added 120 kb/d MoM. The rate of annual growth recovered in November after two consecutive months of decline, rising back to +0.83 mb/d YoY. Exhibit 2:Production from 'shale states' rose by 150 kb/d MoM and was 0.83 mb/d higher YoY (+8.8%).Source: EIA PSM Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. February 7, 2024 10:09 AM GMTM Update2Supply Continued… Baker Hughes data saw the oil rig count drop at the start of November, but rig additions in the latter half of the month left the rig count flat at 450 MoM. The steady rig count recovery seen in October seems to have lost steam in...
