M UpdateOil Data Digest | EuropeKey Agency Revisions - February 2024We summarise February forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. The magnitude of supply downgrades exceeds that of demand downgrades this month, leaving balances slightly tighter MoM. Revisions to US supply growth estimates were a common theme, with changes mostly to the downside. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Charlotte FirkinsResearch Associate Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3866 Martijn Rats, CFAEquity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618 Exhibit 1 : OPEC estimates for 2024 have remained a bit of an outlier… Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC , Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Note: the IEA has not yet released 2025 estimates. Exhibit 2 : …driven by a higher demand growth estimate for 2024 Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: the IEA has not yet released 2025 estimates. This report summarises estimates from the IEA, OPEC and the EIA, and compares them with our latest estimates from The Oil Manual: Cautiously Optimistic (Part 1). January saw global 2024 demand growth estimates remain largely unchanged across all three agencies. The IEA and OPEC tweaked their forecasts down by -20 kb/d and -10 kb/d respectively, while the EIA increased its projection by +30 kb/d. The IEA's and OPEC demand growth estimates for 2024 continue to differ by over 1 mb/d. The minor negative adjustments seen by the IEA and OPEC reflect a tougher macroeconomic outlook weighing on oil demand in 2024, particularly in Europe. The EIA's small demand growth upgrade for 2024 was also not particularly positive, as it derived from downgrades to both 2023 and 2024 estimates, with the 2023 negative demand revisions exceeding those to 2024 numbers (-80 kb/d in 2023 vs – 50 kb/d in 2024). The EIA has become slightly more bullish on demand growth in 2025, raising its estimate by +80 kb/d to 1.29 mb/d of growth. This is still considerably less than OPEC's forecast of 1.85 mb/d of demand growth in 2025, which remained unchanged from last month's report. The upgrade was largely based on raising the 2025 demand growth estimate for the US by +100 kb/d, going from almost zero in January's report to +0.11 mb/d of expected growth in February's report. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of...
