M UpdateGlobal Macro Strategy | GlobalG10 FX Chart PackMorgan Stanley & Co. LLCMatthew HornbachStrategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+James K LordStrategist James.Lord@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3254 David S. Adams, CFAStrategist David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3518 Wanting LowStrategist Wanting.Low@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6841 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Koichi SugisakiStrategist Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAndrew M WatrousStrategist Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287 Zoe K StraussStrategist Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0407 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Top charts we are watching for each G10 currency with economic indicators, flows, positioning and drivers.Despite leaning towards USD strength in the "rate cut versus strong growth" dollar tug of war, we continue to favour relative value trades until our conviction increases.USD View: Neutral | Skew: BullishDespite being caught between risk-positive (USD negative) rate cut expectations and strong growth (USD positive) expectations, we see the risks tilting to the latter. EUR View: Neutral | Skew: BearishContinued weak growth and disinflation could raise market risks of a faster and deeper cutting cycle, amplifying EUR’s attractiveness as a funding currency.GBP View: Neutral | Skew: NeutralFiscal policy amplifying carry-to-vol should increase GBP’s near-term attractiveness; policy predictability with rising potential growth could prove positive as well.JPY View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish We stay bullish JPY and maintain our short EUR/JPY recommendation. We see limited prospect for policy divergence as the Fed focuses on inflation over growth.CHF View: Neutral | Skew: BearishWe lean bearish as inflation differentials reduce, increasing CHF nominal to REER pass-through at a time when pushback on CHF REER strength is rising.NOK View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish Stubborn economic data coupled with continued wage risks keep Norges Bank higher for longer and us bullish on a RV basis to hedge for global macro risks.SEK View: Neutral | Skew: BearishDownside risks from global and European manufacturing weakness, while the Riksbank turns increasingly dovish creates a challenging outlook for SEK.AUD View: Bullish | Skew: BullishWe expect AUD outperformance given fiscal tailwinds, an RBA tightening bias, the outlook for copper prices, and room for AUD to catch up to highly correlated assets.NZD View: Neutral | Skew: NeutralWe expect AUD/NZD gains as the cross catches up to yield differentials and RBNZ cuts are re-priced into the curve given recent economic weakness.CAD View: Bearish | Skew: BearishWe recommend short CAD/NOK based on room for policy divergence, upside risks to oil,...
