M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global February 9Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMartin W Tobias, CFAStrategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCEli P CarterStrategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 Lenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Marie-Anais C FrancoisStrategist Marie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1877 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Koichi SugisakiStrategist Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Min DaiStrategist Min.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7983 Annual US CPI revisions underwhelm, USTs end mildly cheaper; Mexico TIIE rally continues; NOK gains extend in risk-on environment; THB weakens on cut prospects; European rates bear-flatten; Fed's Logan says QT has been going "very smoothly"; DXY at 104.08 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.175% (+2.1bp).• USTs fluctuate around the release of annual US CPI revisions, but eventually mildly bear-flatten despite revisions that confirm recent progress on inflation.• TIIEs were the exception to a sell-off in LatAm rates, in a continuation of the post-Banxico rally.• NOK (+0.6%) gains extend, after slightly stronger-than-expected January CPI data, alongside a rally in equities and a rise in Brent crude oil.• THB (-0.3%) depreciates to 35.92 against USD, after the BoT Assistant Governor says the central bank is prepared to lower rates if it is certain the economic downturn is long-lasting.• European rates bear-flatten, with slight peripheral underperformance.• Dallas Fed President Logan describes progress on inflation as "tremendous" but says there is more work to do. She believes the balance sheet unwind has been going "very smoothly" thus far.Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Banxico Review: Door Opened; Government Bond Auction Pipeline: The Month Ahead; Colombia Economics & Sovereign Credit Strategy: Fiscal Risks Ahead; EM Fixed Income Flows Update: Where Supply Meets Demand; Podcast | The Global Macro Guide: February 9). There are no G10 central bank meetings in the week ahead. Selected scheduled G10 central bank speaking engagements include Fed Governor Bowman (Feb 12), Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Feb 14), BoE Governor Bailey (Feb 14), ECB President Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section...
