1Joyce Chang AC (1-212) 834-4203joyce.chang@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAmy Ho AC (1-212) 622 9364amy.ho@jpmchase.comStrategic Research13 February 2024J P M O R G A NWe hosted the first webinar in our 2024 US Election Watch series on February 8, featuring two seasoned independent policy and political experts with deep experience analyzing Democratic and Republican priorities and agenda. Note that our meetings are conducted under Chatham House rules and that some of the views in this note represent the perspectives of the speakers and are not necessarily the opinions of J.P Morgan Research analysts.Click here for a replay of the call and here for our accompanying PowerPoint presentation.Despite betting markets and international views predicting a Trump victory (Figure 1Beting ods – 2024 U.S. President), both of our guest speakers see the upcoming election as Biden�s to lose and share a base case of a narrow Biden presidential victory, although conviction is not that high nine months before an election. They also expect a split Congress with the Democrats taking the House and the Republicans taking the Senate as the most likely outcome. For additional background on the US elections and geopolitical implications, see our report on What to watch in the 2024 Election Superbowl, Joyce Chang et al., 10 Jan.Figure 1: Betting odds – 2024 U.S. PresidentRealClearPolitics (RCP) Betting Average, 3 Jan 2023 to 11 Feb 2024Source: RCP.Figure 2: How the world views US leaders and political partiesNet favorability* rating of the following political figures and parties among adults in each country Source: NYTimes/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct 22 to Nov 3. 2024 US Election WatchToo early to make assumptions on the outcome of the presidential elections2Joyce Chang AC (1-212) 834-4203joyce.chang@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAmy Ho AC (1-212) 622 9364amy.ho@jpmchase.comStrategic Research2024 US Election Watch13 February 2024J P M O R G A NWe highlight below the top 10 takeaways from the webinar, highlighting what to expect out of Congress this year along with likely drivers that will affect the outcome of the elections and potential market implications.1. Low expectations for advancing partisan legislation in an election year.Expectations are low for advancing partisan legislation due to the very narrow majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate. 2023 was the least productive year for Congress in decades with only 34 bills passed despite Congress holding a total of 724 votes, as debt ceiling negotiations, removal of the previous Speaker of the House and FY24 appropriation bills dominated the agenda. Congress could accomplish even less this year as the current makeup of the House only allows Republicans to lose three votes and that is only if the entire caucus is present to vote. Speaker of the...
