LIBYA ECONOMIC MONITORFall 2023Middle East and North Africa RegionPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedLibya Economic MonitorFall 2023LIBYA ECONOMIC MONITOR I Fall 20233CONTENTSBOXES 3ACRONYMS 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 8Conflict, Fragility and Governance 8Growth 16 External Sector 20Public Finances 21RECENT SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 25Poverty and Vulnerability 25Health Services 27Education 28Water and Sanitation 28Access to Electricity 29OUTLOOK 30LIBYA ECONOMIC MONITOR I Fall 20234BOXESBox 1: The Derna Tragedy and Water Sector Governance in Libya 10Box 2: Recent Progress Toward the Reunification of the Central Bank of Libya 13Box 3: The economic Impacts of the storm Daniel:The RDNA assessment 17Box 4: The importance of planning public investment Figures 23Figure 1: Financial Costs of the Conflict on the Water Sector (2012-2019) 10Figure 2: General Company for Water and Wastewater Budget, 2018 (US$ million) 11Figure 3: Libya: Violence Has sharply Abated since 2011 11Figure 4: Violent incidents were registered all over the country but highly concentrated in oil-rich areas 12Figure 5: Libya: Most Volatile Growth Performance Worldwide 14Figure 6: Since 2011, Oil Production remained largely dependent on Political and Security conditions 15Figure 7: Diversification in Libya: Stagnating over Decades 15Figure 8: Spatial Disparities Among Districts a source of political tension 15Figure 9: Inequal Repartition of GDP Per Capita Among Districts in 2023 15Figure 10: Oil sector: A significant increase in production but oil price decline shrank exports revenue 16Figure 11: Oil and Gas Field Geographic Positions are far from the flooded areas 16Figure 12: sectoral distribution of the damages and loss 17Figure 13: regional distribution of the damages and loss 17Figure 14: Limited GDP impact in 2023 that could increase in 2024 and 2025 18Figure 15: The flooding affects all economic sector except for oil and mining sectors 18Table 1: GDP loss by district relative variation vis-à-vis to the business-as-usual scenario) 18Figure 16: Inflation has eased gradually in 2023 19Figure 17: The ease of inflation has been perceived in all regions in 2023 19Figure 18: Money Supply and Currency Outside the Banking System has grown in 2023 20Figure 19: Current Account Balance and Net Official Reserves significantly increased in 2022 21Figure 20: Lower oil prices and reduced trade balance surplus during the first seven months of 2023 21Figure 21: During the first nine months of 2023 GNU achieved a fiscal surplus 23Figure 22: Capital Expenditure is significant but large part of directed toward the National Oil Corporation 24Figure 23: Diverse Impacts: How Sector-Specific Investments Shape GDP Outcomes 24Figure 24: Poverty remains challenge mainly in the East and South of Libya 25Figure 25: A large Pr...
