North America Commodities Research18 January 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comGlobal Commodities ResearchShikha Chaturvedi AC(1-212) 834-3245shikha.chaturvedi@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NASince publishing earlier this week, we are providing more detailed balances that now address our assumptions for freeze-offs by region. We have additionally increased our assumption for freeze-offs impacting production to ~3.5 Bcf/day for January. This is a ~2.5 Bcf/day revision higher than what our balance reflected earlier this week. Additionally, we have incorporated in this balance updated January weather of 918 HDDs, now virtually flat to our 10-year normal. Our end-March 2024 storage trajectory is ~1.9 Tcf and our end-October 2024 storage trajectory is ~3.92 Tcf assuming normal weather after January.Additionally, another FERC filing recently from Golden Pass appears that the facility is seeking to commission its flare system by February 17, 2024. There may be some incremental feedgas needed for this process, but if history were a guide we would assume that this still puts the facility on pace for increased feedgas flows for LNG production by 4Q24. As a reminder, our current lower-48 balance incorporates Golden Pass feedgas flows commencing in 4Q24. In our balances of Southeast US, (representing Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana) reflects only the addition to of Plaquemines feedgas demand to consume additional gas in the region. We have made a conservative assumption that Golden Pass may be able to access flows from Texas and therefore its pull on the Southeast balance is not included. We do not believe that flows will actually manifest this way but it is meant to highlight just how tight the regional balance can be with just one facility online, the driver of our bullish 2025 price narrative.We remain supportive 4Q24 price versus the forward curve based on our end of season storage trajectories. Please reach out to us or your J.P. Morgan sales contact for the excel version of these balances. See page 8 for analyst certification and important disclosures.US Natural GasS&D balance update amid weather/freeze-offs; detailed balances included2Shikha Chaturvedi AC (1-212) 834-3245shikha.chaturvedi@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANorth America Commodities ResearchUS Natural Gas18 January 2024J P M O R G A NFigure 1: J.P. Morgan Commodities Nymex NG price forecastIn $/MMBtu1Q232Q233Q234Q2320231Q242Q243Q244Q2420241Q252Q253Q254Q252025Current Forecast*……………2.602.703.004.003.084.754.504.755.004.75Previous Forecast**……………3.252.903.204.003.34……………Actual To Date4.082.322.572.97…2.68………………………All forecasts are averages of the contract months within the quarter. Actual to date prices are as of January 18, 2023. *As of December 18, 2023. **As of November 22, 2023. Source: JPMorgan Natural ...
