[Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 Mizuho 瑞穗(8411 JP)23Q3 业绩快评(单季度数据) 点评 23Q3 营 收及利润超预期，非息收入优于预期，净利息收入不及预期： 23Q3（FY23 Oct-Dec）营收同比+22.0%，归母净利润同比+10.7%，均超出 BBG 一致预期 10pct 以上，非息收入超预期增长、成本管控、低于预期的减值损失，都贡献了利润的超预期增长 非息收入同比+27.7%，超预期（BBG: -5.1%）强劲增长，特别是手续费和佣金收入。非息占比近年在 65%以上，高于三井住友约 15pct 净利息收入同比-4.4%，不及预期。23Q1-3 存贷利差为 0.76%，比上半年+1bp 成本收入比同比下降 2.7pct 至 56.8%，优于预期（BBG: 66.9%） 23Q3 存 、贷款增长不及预期： 贷款同比+0.6%（BBG: +1.4%），存款同比+3.5%（BBG: +3.9%） 23Q3 减 值损失少于预期，不良贷款率同比、环比均上升： 信贷减值损失总额 27 亿日元，低于预期（BBG: 384 亿日元），信贷减值损失较去年同期减少 不良率为 1.11%，同比上升 14bp，环比上升 2bp（p.s.截至 FY23 Sep，房地产贷款占总贷款比例约 12.1%） 风险 全球经济增长高/低于预期；加息幅度高/低于预期，资产质量超出/不及预期。 [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Feb 2024 瑞穗金融集团 Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) 利润超预期，源于非息增长强劲&成本、减值损失优于预期 Profit Beat from Strong NIR Growth & Better Expense and Impairment Result 周琦 Nicole Zhou, CFA 林加力 Jiali Lin nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com jiali.lin@htisec.com 2 Feb 2024 2 [Table_header2] 瑞穗金融集团 (8411 JP) 表1 业绩汇总 资料来源：瑞穗金融集团 2023 财年三季报，彭博，海通国际 2 Feb 2024 3 [Table_header2] 瑞穗金融集团 (8411 JP) APPENDIX 1 Summary Event: Mizuho (8411.JP) released the 23Q3 earnings report. Review: 23Q3 (FY23 Oct-Dec) revenue increased by +22.0% YoY, and attributable net profit rose by +10.7% YoY, both surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by over 10%. The unexpected growth in non-interest income, effective cost control, and lower-than-expected impairment losses all contributed to the exceeding profit growth. Non-interest income increased by +27.7% YoY, surpassing expectations (BBG: -5.1%), driven by strong growth, especially in fee and commission income. Non-interest income accounted for over 65% in recent years, around 15 pct higher than Mitsui Sumitomo. NII decreased by -4.4% YoY, falling short of expectations. The loans and deposits interest spread for 23Q1-3 was 0.76%, an increase of 1 bp compared to 23H1. The efficiency ratio decreased by 2.7 pct YoY to 56.8%, outperforming expectations (BBG: 66.9%). Loans increased by +0.6% YoY (BBG: +1.4%), and deposits grew by +3.5% YoY (BBG: +3.9%). Total credit cost amounted to 2.7 billion JPY, below expectations (BBG: 38.4 billion JPY), with a decrease ...
