JUNE 2021TRACKING SUBNATIONALPROGRESSTOWARD CARBON NEUTRALITY IN THE U.S. AND CHINAThe California-China Climate Institute November 2023iREPORT AUTHORSFredrich Kahrl*, Jessica Gordon*, Fan Dai* and Jie Han◊*California-China Climate Institute, University of California, Berkeley◊ University of California, Berkeley ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA-CHINA CLIMATE INSTITUTEThe California-China Climate Institute was launched in September 2019 and is a University of California-wide initiative housed jointly at UC Berkeley’s School of Law and the Rausser College of Natural Resources. It is Chaired by Jerry Brown, former Governor of the State of California, and Vice-Chaired by the former Chair of the California Air Resources Board Mary Nichols. The Institute also works closely with other University of California campuses, departments and leaders. Through joint research, training and dialogue in and between California and China, this Institute aims to inform policymakers, foster cooperation and partnership and drive climate solutions at all levels.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe authors would like to thank the following reviewers for helpful comments: Michael Davidson (University of California, San Diego), He Gang (Baruch College, City University of New York, Nina Khanna (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), Hongyou Lu (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), and Jim Williams (University of San Francisco). iiCONTENTS Acknowledgements i Acronym and Abbreviation List iii Executive Summary v1 Background 12 Carbon Neutrality Indicators and Milestones 23 Tracking Progress: 2000-2021 73.1 Electricity Generation 73.2 Centralized Heat Supply 123.3 Buildings 133.4 Industry 173.5 Transportation 213.6 Forestry 253.7 Energy Intensity 293.8 CO₂ Intensity 323.9 Energy and CO₂ Intensity Trends Vis-à-Vis 2035 Milestones 354 Conclusions 385 References 40 Appendix A: Milestone Calculations 43A.1 Electricity 44A.2 Buildings 45A.3 Industry 46A.4 Transportation 46A.5 Forestry 49 Appendix B: Data Sources and PreparationB.1 U.S. Data 51B.2 China Data 51iiiBEABureau of Economic Analysis CEC California Energy Commission CECChina Electricity Council CESClean Energy StandardsCEYEBChina Energy Yearbook Editorial BoardCHPCombined Heat and PowerCO2Carbon Dioxide DOEDepartment of Energy EIAEnergy Information Agency EPAEnvironmental Protection Agency ETSEmissions Trading SystemEVElectric VehicleFHAFederal Highway Administration FIAFood Inventory and Analysis GDP Gross Domestic ProductGSPGross State ProductGWGigawatthaHectareICCTInternational Council for Clean Transportation IEAInternational Energy Agency IRAInflation Reduction ActLDVLight-duty VehicleLPGLiquified Petroleum Gas MIITMinistry of Industry and Information TechnologyMOHURDMinistry of Housing and Urban Rural Development MOU Memorandum of Understanding NBSNational Bureau of Statistics NEANational Energy Administration NEV New Energy Vehicle NDRCNational Development and Reform Commission Acronym and Abbreviation L...
